Projections of East Africa’s path to 2030 will always be informed by the past. The East African region is facing several compounding and cascading challenges, emerging from both within and outside the region. By some estimates, the Horn of Africa is seeing the most significant political change since the early 1990s, which combined current and unfolding crises may result in development reversals.
There are a number of daunting and interlocking challenges facing the region between 2024-2030. The war in Sudan that broke out in April 2023 is an urgent issue, only increasing in its severity and implications for the region. Ongoing and expanding conflict dynamics in Ethiopia and increased geopolitical tensions across the Red Sea continue to be a focal point for political tension and humanitarian concern. Climate-induced shocks, such as cyclical drought, famine and flooding raise acute humanitarian needs for populations least able to recover. And at the precise moment where humanitarian needs across East Africa are at their most acute, international attention and resources are often directed to other important global crises.
“Facing these monumental challenges is a task that will occupy East African states, communities and international actors alike well past 2030, but there must be a start”
Underlying these contemporary challenges there are deep-seated historical and political concerns in the long durée that frustrate attempts at greater levels of cooperation and solidarity across the region. These have to do with diverging colonial and post-colonial histories, contested understandings of the community and the nation, and the histories of autocratic leadership.
Facing these monumental challenges is a task that will occupy East African states, communities and international actors alike well past 2030, but there must be a start. There remain opportunities to bring together development, political, and economic levers to strengthen the cooperation of East African states with one another, and with international partners.